The C is dead, long live the C

[Brian Densmore]

>-----Original Message-----
>From: Adam Turk 
>>computer I use here at work! You're computer is as powerful as many
>>mainframes. And "PC servers" are more and more adding the hardware
>>stability and complexity of mainframes. Sorry to burst your bubble,
>>mainframes aren't going to die. PCs are. PCs can't compete with the
>>current state of the art mainframe. They will still be called PCs in
the
>>future, but in actuality they will be mainframes. This is a good
thing.
>>Mainframes have fantastic stability.
>
>It can be argued by your logic that current PCs are actually the past's
mainframes. So, your 
Umm, no. You are reading more into my words than are there. I said PC's
are more powerful than 
the past's mainframes. -=Not=- more reliable.

>So why are you fighting me?
maybe I just like to argue. ;)

>Your own argument seems rather convoluted when placed in historical
context.
> You are saying that new mainframes are better than old mainframes,
nothing more.
and cheaper to build and more standardized. (example, hot swappable OTS
IDE and SCSI HD).

> PCs are mini mainframes. Fine. Mainframes are just a testbed to
tomorrow's PC technology. Ok. 
> But then PCs never die, by your argument.
No. Ok let me share a little more of my thinking, since I am not being
clear enough.
There are 2 markets for PCs. Corporate and personal. 
The personal market will dry up as handhelds become more popular. 
This will drive the price of "real" PCs up. [Less demand = higher cost]

The corporate demand will dry up as servers become more powerful and
reliable from the incorporation of mainframe technology. Allowing
desktops to devolve into semi-dumb terminals.
Only production servers warrant the expense of fault tolerance. [even
less demand = even higher cost]
Now I could be wrong on this part, because there really aren't a lot of
contenders in the dumb terminal market. So it could be that PC will be
almost only found on the corporate desktop. But even that might change.
I see large flat screens and full-size keyboards attached to docking
stations for [drum roll] handheld computers. (many years down the road)

That leaves three possible markets for PCs. As personal servers,
hackers, museums. 

>_Current_ mainframes are probably mostly old, and therefore obsolete.
Dust is a good end.
Yes there are a few of these giant monoliths still around, but IBM is
still selling lots of 
-=new=- mainframes. Yes all things have a useful life. But many places
that have mainframes just 
upgrade when the hardware gets too obsolete. There is too much money
tied up in software and 
databases to scrap it all and switch to PC servers.